ArtAuctions

A year from now, we'll look back on the art market 2009 as that last slither though the gutter before picking itself back up in 2010. But, we're not there yet: 2009 is in the rearview mirror, so it will remain our baseline for the next 12 months. When looking at the top performers at auction last year, there's a pretty consistent story – revenue declines ranged from 55 percent to 77 percent relative to 2008. Top 10 mainstays – such as Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol, Alberto Giacometti, Edgar Degas and Claude Monet – got thrashed. These conditions led to some changes, as well, with a Chinese artist making the top 10 for the first time. In fact, he pushed into the top three.

1. Pablo Picasso
Pablo Picasso is back on top, after giving up the #1 position in 2008. And, it took only $121 million in auction sales to get him there. From 1998 to 2008, total sales for Picasso gained 96 percent, before falling by 54 percent last year, with pricing off 15 percent. The number of sales pushing past the $1 million mark declined precipitously, from 39 in 2008 to only 15 last year, and his top sale was for "Mousquetaire a la pipe," which moved for $13 million on May 6, 2009, at Christie's. This year could be a bit tough for Picasso collectors, as Artprice believes certain paintings were still overpriced.

The Christie's and Sotheby's February contemporary art sales surged 255% year-over-year, thanks in large gain relative to the severely depressed baseline created by the financial crisis. Continuing a trend that began last November, with the $39 million sale of Andy Warhol's "200 One Dollar Bills," the art market's showing solid and healthy growth, not a return to the abject stupidity of 2007.

How can you tell the difference? Well, the fact that Alberto Giacometti's "L'homme qui marche I" set a new record at £58 million while Lucian Freud's much-hyped self-portrait with black eye failed to reach the low-end presale estimate, despite the fact that Sotheby's billed it as "the most important self-portrait by the artist ever to he appeared at auction." This represents a profound departure from the prices of $30 million or more that his work used to command.

At Christie's, Yves Klein was responsible for around quarter of the revenue that came in the door, though work by Andy Warhol, Peter Doig, Martin Kippenberger and Richard Prince crossed the £1 billion threshold.

The Art Market Confidence Index by Artprice indicates that art prices will increase over the next quarter.

The action was small at only $9.6 million, but big names were featured at the Phillips de Pury art auction on Friday night. Donald Judd and Jean-Michel Baquiat went under the gavel and home with collectors for the third auction in a row. This follows solid results at Christie's and Sotheby's, marking a distinct turn in the fortunes of the art market.

Phillips de Pury didn't match Sotheby's and Christie's in terms of above-estimate totals and older works, but that really is the norm. So, I wouldn't view the fact that it only hit the middle of its presale estimate pessimistically. Given what was sold earlier in the week at the larger houses, the Phillips sale does nothing but confirm the direction of the art market.

Established artists did continue to rise aove the fray, with Judd's 1987 sculpture, "Untitled (87-29 Studer)," selling for £735,650. Basquiat's "Cash Crop" landscape and collage "Untitled" were the second best sellers behind Judd's work at £713,520 each. All beat their low-end estimates of £600,000.

There was a concern that Phillips would struggle to attract buyers, particularly because the auction was focused on living artists. While the challenge may not have been evident from the fact that 86 percent of the lots sold, it was confirmed by the tendency of them to move at the low end of the presale range.

The 51 lots that Christie's sent under the gavel last night were chosen carefully. The auction was designed to succeed ... which is what you would have thought of every auction until the middle of 2008, right? Nonetheless, the auction house made some bold moves in an effort to push up prices, but only offered lots that would justify putting the necks of its constituent decision-makers on the chopping block.

With a final tally of more than $61 million in line with the high end of the presale estimate, it would appear that Christie's made some smart calls. Forty-six of the lots achieved sale, with one clearing £5 million, nine surpassing £1 million and 16 beating $1 million. Compared to last year's sale, when only 29 lots were offered, the total take surged 3.7X. I tend to be pretty skeptical, but even that sort of result is enough to make me admit that the art market's recovering.

Buyers in Europe and Britain were most active, picking up 41 percent and 33 percent of the sales, respectively. Collectors in the United States followed with 22 percent and Asia at 4 percent.

It looks like art market watchers (including me) were right for the wrong reasons. At the Sotheby's contemporary art auction last night, $84.5 million in sales were completed, but the highly coveted Lucian Freud didn't hit its low estimate. Lucio Fontana, Yves Klein, Willem de Kooning, Peter Doig and Frank Auerbach, however, led to pitched bidding battles.

The evening's highest price was paid for de Kooning's "Untitled XIV," which fetched 4 million pounds over the phone, beating its high-end estimate by a third. The seller was a collector from Europe who picked up the painting from the artist's estate. Doig's "Saint Anton (Flat Light)," an Alpine scene, was good for 2.8 million, also via phone.

But, Lucian Freud still stole the spotlight, if not the top bid. His self-portrait with a black eye carried a low-end presale estimate of 2.8 million – after having been offered at a lower price in private sale before the auction. The seller, Victor Chandler, is a bookmaker based in Gibraltar with a penchant for secrecy: his press officer refused to be named (according to Bloomberg News).

The Lenz collection, also high-profile, performed very well at Sotheby's. Only one of the 47 lots wasn't able to move, and the entire collection sold for 23.2 million pounds, soundly beating a presale estimate of 11.2 million pounds to 15.2 million pounds. The most expensive piece was Klein's "Fire" painting "F 88," which brought in 3.3 million pounds, just shy of its high estimate of 3.5 million.

The evening's surprise came from Auerbach, who's 1956 drawing was purchased by London art dealer Offer Waterman for 1 million pounds, far above the presale estimate of 50,000 pounds to 80,000 pounds. Interestingly, Sotheby's senior international specialist Oliver Barker noted to Bloomberg News, "The gap between Auerbach and Freud and Bacon is closing." Are we seeing a new evolution in the Francis Bacon supply chain?

Overall, the contemporary art auction beat its high-end presale estimate of 45 million pounds and thrashed the 2009 result for the same auction, a mere 17.9 million pounds for 27 lots.

It looks like not all the revenue ticked up at auction last fall turned into a tangible upside for Sotheby's. The auction house is suing two Chinese buyers for $270,300 because they never paid the tabs they bid up. According to Sotheby's, the winning bidder of a Qing Dynasty cloisonné censer and cover didn't pony up the cash required, "despite repeated requests and demands." Ouch! Another purchased took five antique paintings without paying the tab, Bloomberg News reports.

According to Kevin Ching, CEO of Sotheby's Asia division, the company wants "to send a message it won't stand for defaults." Ching continues, "We can't have people bid at our auctions and disappear without paying." To show he's serious, he says he's willing to pursue legal action in mainland China, on the off chance that "they think the long arm of Hong Kong law couldn't reach them." And, with Hong Kong now the third largest art market in the world (after New York and London), the message will reach a pretty broad audience.

Sotheby's won't reveal the identities of the non-payers, citing confidentiality policies.

All secrets eventually come out. At the recent London auctions, in which both Sotheby's and Christie's saw several lots set records, Russian collectors poured some money back into the art market, and Laurence Graff, chairman of Graff Diamonds, parted with a healthy dose of cash. It's this action that caused a combined tally of £258.9 million (including fees), more than double the result a year earlier.

The UK-based diamond dealer sunk £8.1 million into Pablo Picasso's "Tete de Femme (Jacqueline) at the Christie's auction, spending 100 percent more than the high-end presale estimate for the piece. According to Bloomberg News, Graff confirmed the acquisition by e-mail.

Russian billionaires got back into the game, as well, and they exercised better judgment than they did during the art boom, when prices for artists such as Damien Hirst were propelled to absurd levels.

The Impressionist sector has held on rather well, by comparison. "The market for Impressionist and modern art hasn't been as frothy and speculative as contemporary," said Guy Jennings, partner in the London-based dealership Theobald Jennings. "Last year, prices might have slipped five or 10 percent, but since then there's been some asset inflation. That might not be the case in six months' time if there's a double-dip recession."

Sotheby's reached the high end of its presale estimate for its Important Old Master Paintings and Sculpture auction on Thursday. The sale was expected to generate between $38 million and $55 million, and the final result came in at $53.4 million. The top performer was "Jupiter and Antiope," a 1612 mythological scene by Hendrick Goltzius, though the $6.7 million winning bid failed to reach the low end of its presale estimate of $8 million to $12 million. The last high for this artist, though, was $1.5 million, set in 1996 when the art market was recovering following the burst of its early 1990s bubble.

Rembrandt's "Portrait of a Young Woman with a Black Hat" was also estimated at $8 million to $12 million, but the painting never made it under the gavel. The piece was withdrawn at the seller's request, Sotheby's told ArtInfo. He'd picked up the piece at a Sotheby's New York auction in January 2007 for $9 million, paying much more than the $3 million to $4 million estimate.

In 2008, an astounding 65 pieces by Damien Hirst fetched seven-figures each at auction. The total came to $230 million. The numbers are nothing short of staggering, especially when you compare it to what he did six years earlier, when the annual total for his work hit a mere $2 million. Clearly, some excitement was generated, and art collectors rode the wave. The last major sale was conducted at Sotheby's on September 15 and 16. "Beautiful Inside My Head Forever," as it was called, made a killing for the hottest living artist ... right before the financial world went to straight to hell. This bold move, however, led to a period of silence for the artist and stagnation for his collectors.

Shortly after the mortgage market mayhem became a global financial affair, unsold rates for Hirst's work shot from 11 percent to 55 percent by the end of the year. A mere 12 months after his he emptied the insides of his head -- not to mention plenty of inventory -- prices for Hirst's work returned to 2004 levels. A year after buying "Butterfly" painting "I Miss You" in late October 2008, Christie's unloaded it for a mere $450,000, only half what it had paid. In 2004, the piece's initial auction price was $415,000. I suspect this is at least part of the reason why the auction houses backed away from guaranteed minimum pricing ...

With the books closed on 2009, only two pieces by Hirst pierced the million dollar mark, both from the "Butterfly" series. "Tranquility" brought in $1.5 million back in May at an auction in Hong Kong. Almost half a year later, "The Importance of Elsewhere-The Kingdom of Heave" brought in close to $2 million, again at a Hong Kong auction. Both sales came from Seoul, not the usual New York and London communities.

The London art auctions are upon us, and a year has made a hell of a difference. The auctions at Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips de Pury are expected to fetch at least $104 million, which would be an increase of 68 percent over the same season in 2009. If the houses can pull this off, the art market will probably breathe a collective sigh of relief after more than a year of downright awful results.

At this point last year, the art market was in miserable shape. It was already in trouble, as the recession had begun to crystallize over the summer of 2008, a process which was hardened by the financial market meltdown in September. By the end of the year, prices had plummeted, and the practice of guaranteed minimum pricing had generally been abandoned.

By the end of 2009, signs of a recovery began to emerge, though few were willing to commit to it. A few pieces, such as Andy Warhol's "200 One Dollar Bills" turned in strong performances, but nothing was solid enough to call a trend. Nonetheless, hopes are high for the next round of sales, which will include museum-caliber paintings by Peter Doig and Yves Klein. Shown at right is Andy Warhol's Dollar Sign estimated at $1,950,000 - $2,925,000 at Christie's London Post War and Contemporary Art Evening Auction on February 11.

What does 2010 have in store for the art market? Well, it's starting to look like this is the year the market will finally (begin to) recover, though there could be some trepidation at points. Better pieces are coming under the gavel, and serious collectors are interested in artists with real track records. As things loosen up, emerging artists and those just past that stage (think Ben Krell for the former and Nelson Diaz for the latter) will start to see better conditions, as the logjam in the auction houses, once broken, should ease the pressure on galleries and also lead to some progress in private sales. Basically, the return of liquidity to the art market will be better for everyone.

Almost everyone.

This year, some artists won't enjoy as much of the recovery (if it happens ... just to hedge our bets) as others. Their prices were run up too quickly, making the subsequent fall severe. These artists, auction darlings who don't have the history or potency of a Lucian Freud or even a Richard Prince. Yet, they shot out of the emerging artist category years ago. In 2010, these artists, including Damien Hirst and Jeff Koons, will occupy something of a purgatory, as the art market resets values through upward bidding, now that the decks have been washed clean.

The first decade of the new millennium was the domain of Latin America, Asia, Turkey and Russia. A robust art market emerged in the Middle East, which brought with it plenty of interest in the region's artist. But, what about Africa? The continent has been underrepresented in galleries and at auction, but it looks like collectors eager to try something new may be developing an appetite for African art.

The region's offering is both large and incredibly diversified, according to a report by Artprice, and over the past 20 years, several African artists have been able to garner some attention at international art fairs and major exhibitions. Pieces have been featured sporadically, with a show at the Centre Pompidou in Paris in 1989 and anther two years later at the New Museum of Contemporary Art in New York. The Africa Remix exhibition toured from 2004 to 2007 ... and that's about it.

There's been a bit more action in the auction market, with Sotheby's becoming the first major house to sell contemporary African art in June 1999, when it sent the Jean Pigozzi collection under the gavel in London. It generated less than $16,000 but still set a record. Since then, Sotheby's hasn't dedicated any London or New York sales to African art (aside from its work with South African auctioneer, Stephan Welz & Co). Bonhams has taken more of an interest in the category, holding an African art sale back in April and moving 64 percent of the lots offered.

The art market was already in decline when the global financial system was sent into mayhem in September 2008, but the financial nightmare accelerated the drop. This past year has been pretty miserable for artists, galleries, dealers and collectors (who have seen their buying power dry up), but that doesn't mean there hasn't been anything to celebrate.

Several prominent pieces hit fantastic heights at auction this year. Some of the names will look familiar, including Andy Warhol, Henri Matisse and Alberto Giacometti. Old Masters and Asia are represented as well, as they have generally done best in resisting the forces of the art market recession.

Below, take a look at the top 10 pieces at auction in 2009.

Christie's and Sotheby's aren't being shy with the Old Masters. Pieces by Rembrandt, Raphael and Van Dyck are being offered at hefty prices, some records, that could bring in up to $133 million. If this happens, art collectors will have doubled last year's result ... and cast a strong vote in favor of an art market recovery.

The Christie's sale on Tuesday will include a portrait by Rembrandt and a sketch by Raphael. They are being estimated at 18 million pounds and 12 million pounds, respectively. According to Christie's, these are the highest estimates seen at auction, says Bloomberg News. The Sotheby's sale occurs on Tuesday, featuring a Van Dyck portrait that could fetch as much as 3 million pounds.

Unlike the volatile market for contemporary art, prices for the Old Masters have been relatively stable, as the supply is diminishing and demand is increasing.

According to Johnny van Haeften, an art dealer based in London, told Bloomberg News, "Prices at auction are very strong because there isn't much out there." He continues, "People don't want to sell at the moment. They're saying, 'If I let a painting go, where do I put the money? I'd rather keep it in a work of art.'" He bid unsuccessfully for two still life pieces by 17th century Dutch painter Adriaen Coorte. Both ultimately sold for more than 10 times their high-end presale estimates.

[Photo via Christie's]

In London today, $90 million in Russian art is going under the gavel, and the auction houses are hoping that a still robust community of Russian billionaires will come out in force to repatriate their heritage. Both Christie's and Sotheby's are holding auctions on December 1, 2 and 3, with MacDougall's, which specializes in Russian art, also selling on December 2 and 3. Bonhams is conducting one today.

There are some signs that the sales could go well. Sotheby's moved $13.8 million in Russian art at an auction a month ago, topping the $9 million presale estimate. The Russian government is saying the economy should grow next year, after falling 10 percent this year. If recovery is en route, big spending Russians may show up at this week's art auctions.

There's no shortage of Russian art coming on the market this week. In addition to the 540 lots being offered by Sotheby's, at a presale range of 14.8 million pounds to 21.2 million pounds, MacDougall's is selling 460 lots (12.5 million pounds to 17.6 million pounds), including a painting of a topless woman by Zinaida Serebriakova for between 1 million pounds and 1.5 million pounds. Christie's has 578 lots, with a presale estimate of 6.5 million pounds to 9.3 million pounds.